Took 15 years. How long do you think it will take for the next billion?
Well, like all good FUDsters and shitcoiners like to say, bitcoin can only process a maximum of 6 transactions per second on base layer.
That’s true, but that doesn’t count lightning transactions, and doesn’t take into consideration that those transactions are reliable and uncensorable. Your shitcoin claiming to have more tps goes down on you pretty often. While bitcoin is just happily ticking on.
I haven’t done the math but during the first 15 years a ton of blocks were empty, or partially filled.
I don’t think we’ll see that again.
Back to the numbers, here’s what ChatGPT says:
If 6 transactions take 1 second, then 1 transaction would take 1/6 = 0.167 seconds.
So, for 1 billion (1,000,000,000) transactions, it would take 0.167 * 1,000,000,000 = 166,666,667 seconds.
To convert this into more understandable units:
- There are 60 seconds in a minute, so it would take 166,666,667 / 60 = 2,777,778 minutes approximately.
- There are 60 minutes in an hour, so it would take 2,777,778 / 60 = 46,296 hours approximately.
- There are 24 hours in a day, so it would take 46,296/ 24 = 1,929 days approximately.
- There are 365 days in a year (excluding leap years), so it would take 1,929 / 365 = 5.28 years approximately.
So, approx. 5.28 years to process 1 billion transactions.
Chatgpt says it would take 5.28 years to do 1 billion transactions with full blocks.
So I guess something like 6-7 years is plausible for the next billion, and then 5.28 years again for the next one which is going to be completely full of transactions.
We can safely assume demand is only going to go up for blockspace and that price volatility will also smooth out, even while price itself will go up.
