They told you to buy the rally. They told you it was the institutional supercycle. They told you $100,000 was a formality and $120,000 was the target.
Now the analytics firm that tracks their wallets has published the receipts, and the receipts are ugly.
Glassnode says the people who bought last year’s rally are selling more Bitcoin per day than at any other point in 2026.
What Glassnode actually found
The firm grouped Bitcoin holders by when they bought and calculated each group’s average cost — the price at which that group breaks even. Two of those groups are underwater right now, and they are not being quiet about it.
- Buyers from six to twelve months ago average a cost basis of about $89,000. Bitcoin is trading around $84,700. They need roughly a 5% move just to get their money back.
- Buyers from one to two years ago average a cost basis of about $97,000. They need nearly 15%.
- Glassnode’s chart marks two points where Bitcoin rallied into those lines and got rejected — twice.
- Meanwhile, everyone who bought the dip is sitting still. Not selling. Not moving coins.
Read that last point again. The supply hitting the market is not coming from the whole holder base. It is coming from one specific group: the people who bought the top.
The trap nobody explains to you
Here is the part the cheerleaders never put on a chart.
When you buy at $97,000 and the price drops to $84,000, you are not a long-term holder. You are a trapped buyer. And trapped buyers do not behave like investors. They behave like people waiting for the elevator.
Every rally back to their cost basis becomes a sell button. Not because they stopped believing. Because they want to get out flat and pretend it never happened. Glassnode is describing a mechanical, predictable, self-reinforcing wall of sellers sitting above the current price — and that wall has now been tested and held twice.
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits has already flipped to bearish. The chatter that was "low" is now "normal." The enthusiasm has drained out.
And the exit is narrower than you think
Analyst Ted Pillows put the trigger at a weekly close below $87,500, with a decent chance of a correction under $80,000 if it fails. That $80,000 line is not just a number — it is the 365-day moving average, which we have already flagged as the bull’s birth certificate for this cycle.
You have read this story here before. The ETF crowds are still billions underwater, and the people who bought cheap just did not sell when they were told to. Guess which group is now the problem. Guess which group is not.
Them vs us
They bought through a fund, on the news cycle, at the top of the chart, with borrowed conviction they never actually earned. They are second in line behind the fund, the custodian, the broker, and the market maker.
You hold the key. Nobody queues your Bitcoin up as sell pressure because a chart line got touched. Nobody decides when your coins move except you.
That is the entire difference between a drawdown you can hold through and a cost basis that turns you into somebody else’s exit liquidity.
The Love Is Bitcoin Takeaway
Break-even levels are not support. They are supply. When the crowd that bought the top is trapped above you, every rally into their entry price is a rally into a wall of people trying to get out for free.
Follow the cost basis. Not the cheerleading.
Full story: loveisbitcoin.com
Coupon: LOVEISBITCOIN
This is not financial advice. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Do your own research.
Source: TradingView / Stocktwits — Glassnode on 2025 buyer selling pressure
THE PEOPLE WHO TOLD YOU TO BUY THE TOP ARE NOW YOUR SELL WALL
